I claim that objective consequentialism (OC) faces a problem stemming from the existence in some situations of a plurality of chances relevant to the outcomes of an agent’s acts. I suggest that this phenomenon bears structural resemblance to the well-known Reference Class problem. I outline a few ways in which one could attempt to deal with the issue, suggesting that it is the higher-level chance that should be employed by OC.

Link to the article: Objective consequentialism and the plurality of chances

The work on the first draft of this article was supported by the Grant no. 2015/17/B/HS1/02279 from the National Science Centre, Poland. The research leading to the final version has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant agreement no. 805498).